The Philosopher-Analyst:
Ancient Wisdom for Algorithmic Thinking
Oct 25, 2025
I believe ancient wisdom written 2,500 years ago will remain relevant for another 2,500 years.
Alex Filiakov
Actuary
I’ve journeyed from poker tables to software development to actuarial science, now thriving in the dynamic world of Property & Casualty insurance. A lifelong fascination with risk, uncertainty, and hidden patterns runs through everything I do, from decoding complex data to pondering life’s bigger questions. My writing explores the unseen frameworks that shape our choices and outcomes, blending technical insight with philosophical reflection.
Welcome to my corner of the internet: a space where numbers meet meaning and chaos reveals its patterns. Here, curious minds are invited to uncover the narratives within the math and discover meaning in the unpredictable.
My Projects:
Ergodicity Advantage
Transforming insurance from a necessary cost to a growth accelerator.
Learn more →Read my latest blog post:
The Philosopher-Analyst:
Read my latest research:
Ergodicity Economics in Property & Casualty Insurance:
A Simulation Framework for Understanding Risk Appetite
October 1, 2025
Abstract
This paper introduces an open-source simulation framework applying ergodicity economics to corporate risk transfer optimization. Using 100,000 Monte Carlo paths over 50-year horizons, we model complete balance sheet dynamics under realistic loss distributions. Results demonstrate that maximizing time-average growth rates, rather than minimizing expected costs, reveals optimal strategies invisible to traditional analysis. Moderate retention consistently dominates both guaranteed cost and self-insurance extremes. Small companies rationally pay substantial premium loadings because insurance alters multiplicative wealth dynamics. Capitalization, operating margins, and asset turnover drive optimal deductibles far more than industry benchmarks or peer conventions.